{"id":3200,"date":"2023-07-09T11:12:06","date_gmt":"2023-07-09T09:12:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/balteiro.com\/137_a-vueltas-c\/"},"modified":"2023-10-23T11:25:50","modified_gmt":"2023-10-23T09:25:50","slug":"137_a-vueltas-c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/balteiro.com\/en\/137_a-vueltas-c\/","title":{"rendered":"A vueltas con el carbono forestal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"has-text-align-left wp-block-paragraph\">Me ha llamado la atenci\u00f3n un&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-023-06187-1\">art\u00edculo<\/a>&nbsp;que ha aparecido hace unos d\u00edas en la revista Nature (5 de julio) sobre la supuesta mala consideraci\u00f3n de las emisiones asociadas a la captura de carbono que realizan los sistemas forestales. La tesis de los autores es que, en un sentido amplio, la gesti\u00f3n forestal no es neutral en cuanto al carbono capturado y que se deben de computar unos costes (balance negativo entre la captura y las emisiones) al hacer el c\u00e1lculo del carbono en los sistemas forestales. En s\u00edntesis, si estos autores llevaran raz\u00f3n, dicha captura ser\u00e1, a nivel global, marcadamente menor y se rompe, de cierta forma, el paradigma de la gesti\u00f3n forestal sostenible. En efecto, los resultados muestran unos valores en cuanto a esa supuesta sobreestimaci\u00f3n del carbono capturado por las masas forestales muy considerables (3.5-4,2 Gt de CO2e al a\u00f1o). Si los autores llevan raz\u00f3n, los sistemas forestales emiten anualmente tanto como la agricultura, y supondr\u00edan, aproximadamente, un 10% del total de las emisiones. Sin embargo, se debe se\u00f1alar que estos resultados contradicen las predicciones del IPCC de aumento del stock de carbono en sumideros terrestres (prev\u00e9n un aumento de 7Gt de CO2e entre 2010 y 2100), as\u00ed como otros&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/pii\/S0959378022001200?via%3Dihub\">trabajos de investigaci\u00f3n recientes<\/a> que, a trav\u00e9s de modelos tambi\u00e9n globales y fijando m\u00e1s de 80 escenarios fijan una captura anual del sector forestal cifrado entre 1,8 y 5,2Gt de CO2e. En definitiva, si los autores tuvieran raz\u00f3n, ser\u00eda como pasar de golpe del blanco al negro y asumir que el cemento o el pl\u00e1stico, en algunos casos, igual son m\u00e1s sostenibles que la madera.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1014\" height=\"994\" src=\"http:\/\/balteiro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-07-09-12.45.42-medium-age-alder-plantation.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2376\" srcset=\"https:\/\/balteiro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-07-09-12.45.42-medium-age-alder-plantation.png 1014w, https:\/\/balteiro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-07-09-12.45.42-medium-age-alder-plantation-300x294.png 300w, https:\/\/balteiro.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/07\/DALL\u00b7E-2023-07-09-12.45.42-medium-age-alder-plantation-768x753.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1014px) 100vw, 1014px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Aunque no creo que sea el objetivo de este blog en entrar en detalles t\u00e9cnicos que requieren un conocimiento especializado, s\u00ed que debo comentar que, personalmente, me cuesta creer en estos resultados porque contravienen el sentido de todo lo que se ha avanzado en las \u00faltimas d\u00e9cadas sobre la integraci\u00f3n del carbono en la gesti\u00f3n forestal, y porque las hip\u00f3tesis sobre c\u00f3mo se consideran las cortas en el tiempo (asumen que no se contabiliza adecuadamente la regeneraci\u00f3n despu\u00e9s de una corta final), y c\u00f3mo se produce dicha regeneraci\u00f3n son, a mi juicio, como m\u00ednimo conflictivas. Adem\u00e1s, los autores proponen en el p\u00e1rrafo final de este art\u00edculo que reduciendo las cortas producir\u00e1 una mitigaci\u00f3n habitualmente no contemplada en los c\u00e1lculos que se hacen a nivel global. Sin embargo, ya hay&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.science.org\/doi\/10.1126\/science.add5878\">estudios<\/a>&nbsp;recientes que afirman que si se produce la utop\u00eda de eliminarse las cortas y los incendios, el carbono s\u00f3lo se incrementar\u00eda en un 15%. Es decir, que para disgusto del club de fans del rewilding y del decrecimiento, esa parece que no ser\u00eda la soluci\u00f3n. Por otro lado, albergo dudas sobre el modelo a nivel global que han utilizado y desplegado para 30 pa\u00edses (ya adelanto que no han considerado el caso de Espa\u00f1a). Adem\u00e1s de desconocer si se adapta a la realidad actual (es del siglo pasado), los resultados que ofrece son bastante sorprendentes. Por ejemplo, la predicci\u00f3n de la oferta de madera con destinos m\u00e1s nobles en cuanto a la permanencia del carbono (madera de sierra, chapa, etc.) en los seis pa\u00edses de la UE considerados va a sufrir un descenso en 2050 comparado con 2010. Ese descenso en pa\u00edses como Alemania o Francia supera el 30%. No tengo estudios al respecto en estos pa\u00edses, pero me parecen unas cifras, como m\u00ednimo, no esperadas. Y, si fueran ciertas, la estrategia forestal europea no resulta cre\u00edble. Por otro lado, las cifras que pronostica a China son espectaculares, y vienen a decir que para ese destino la oferta de este tipo de madera en este pa\u00eds es del orden de la suma del resto de 29 pa\u00edses (incluyendo a USA, Rusia, Brasil, la UE, Canad\u00e1, la India\u2026).&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Sin embargo, creo que resulta interesante incidir en algunas premisas y algunos resultados con el fin de ilustrar aspectos de la econom\u00eda del carbono. Lo primero que cabe recordar es que continuamente se est\u00e1n superponiendo en este y otros an\u00e1lisis un determinado alcance (global), la componente espacial (\u00e1reas que forestan y se deforestan en dichos modelos), la componente temporal (son a largo plazo) y, sobre todo c\u00f3mo se contabiliza el carbono. Por ello, no debe sorprender que existan m\u00faltiples aproximaciones al problema. Adem\u00e1s, desde el punto de vista forestal, es preciso modelizar en cada caso las selviculturas previstas seg\u00fan los tipos de masa forestal existentes, y tambi\u00e9n considerando el carbono en los productos y su vida \u00fatil. Volviendo al art\u00edculo que nos ocupa, en el modelo empleado parten de unos valores sobre la vida \u00fatil de los productos derivados de la madera publicados en la d\u00e9cada de los noventa y que son diferentes (m\u00e1s largos) a los que se recomiendan actualmente. Eso nos lleva a pensar si el mix de productos era el mismo hace treinta a\u00f1os que ahora y porqu\u00e9 se han aceptado, en muchos foros, esas reducciones en la vida \u00fatil. Si a esto le sumamos la distinci\u00f3n entre el carbono como flujo o stock, las incertidumbres debido a perturbaciones, etc., se puede entender que resulta entendible que se siga profundizando en estos temas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Por otro lado, en este ya pol\u00e9mico art\u00edculo (seg\u00fan algunas reacciones que he visto en redes sociales) se descuentan las unidades f\u00edsicas del carbono en el futuro (emisiones y capturas) a trav\u00e9s de una tasa (4%). Dicha tasa la justifican mediante un promedio del coste social del carbono, y una rentabilidad real de ese 4%. Esta aproximaci\u00f3n (coste social del carbono) es perfectamente leg\u00edtima y trata de encontrar el coste que para la sociedad supone emitir una unidad adicional (coste marginal) de carbono. Sin embargo, cuantificar este par\u00e1metro est\u00e1 sujeto a&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-022-05224-9\">controversias<\/a>, a modificaciones anuales, y habr\u00eda que hacerlo para cada pa\u00eds. Dejando a un lado las consecuencias de fijar una rentabilidad real de un 4% para un sistema forestal, y m\u00e1xime en un contexto inflacionario, me interesa destacar que abrir este mel\u00f3n lleva a m\u00faltiples preguntas: \u00bfSe deben descontar siempre las capturas de carbono? \u00bfser\u00eda m\u00e1s apropiado hacerlo con unidades monetarias? \u00bfqu\u00e9 tasa se emplea a nivel global, si este es el camino? En un sistema forestal, \u00bfse debe utilizar una tasa \u00fanica o se modifica seg\u00fan el servicio ecosist\u00e9mico considerado? A t\u00edtulo informativo, publicaciones que han tenido mucho predicamento en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, como el&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.lse.ac.uk\/granthaminstitute\/publication\/the-economics-of-climate-change-the-stern-review\/\">informe Stern<\/a>&nbsp;utiliza tasas de descuento sociales mucho m\u00e1s bajas (1,3%), mientras que el&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/publications\/final-report-the-economics-of-biodiversity-the-dasgupta-review\">informe Dasgupta<\/a>&nbsp;tambi\u00e9n se inclina por tasas menores a ese 4%. N\u00f3tese que el c\u00e1lculo de estas tasas y su justificaci\u00f3n es un problema complejo (influyen aspectos como la mortalidad en cada pa\u00eds, el valor de la vida humana, etc.) y con aspectos \u00e9ticos evidentes (la justicia intergeneracional).&nbsp;&nbsp;Aunque los autores afirman que los resultados se comportan de forma inel\u00e1stica ante cambios en la tasa de descuento, s\u00ed que se debe resaltar que en un ejemplo que incluyen, si no se descontara este supuesto exceso de emisiones se reducir\u00eda en un 30%. Adem\u00e1s, la \u00faltima circunstancia que quisiera comentar con relaci\u00f3n a este trabajo es que, seg\u00fan los autores, los ecosistemas donde las emisiones son menores son las plantaciones forestales (\u201chigh plantation productivity\u201c). No est\u00e1 de m\u00e1s incidir en ello por si alguien reivindica la aplicaci\u00f3n de medidas en base a estos resultados.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Finalmente, no sale de mi cabeza el hecho que, como he comentado antes, no es muy habitual ver art\u00edculos en esta revista relacionados con la gesti\u00f3n forestal, pero el \u00faltimo que&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2438-y\">recuerdo<\/a>&nbsp;provoc\u00f3 en su momento una reacci\u00f3n de&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/balteiro.com\/en\/49_titulares-recientes-en-el-ambito-forestal\/\">rechazo<\/a>&nbsp;por numerosos investigadores, dadas las cifras sobrestimadas de cortas que ofrec\u00edan a nivel europeo. Supongo que ser\u00e1 casualidad que se publiquen art\u00edculos tan desviados de la opini\u00f3n mayoritaria asociada a la gesti\u00f3n forestal, pero a ver qu\u00e9 ocurre con este trabajo.&nbsp;&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>La tasa de descuento no s\u00f3lo descuenta los impactos del cambio clim\u00e1tico, sino tambi\u00e9n la incertidumbre sobre dichos impactos. Richard S.J. Tol: Climate Economics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2377,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"elementor_theme","format":"standard","meta":{"_editorskit_title_hidden":false,"_editorskit_reading_time":0,"_editorskit_is_block_options_detached":false,"_editorskit_block_options_position":"{}","site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"disabled","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[67,68,88],"tags":[99,100,101],"class_list":["post-3200","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cambio-climatico-en","category-carbono-en","category-sector-forestal-en","tag-carbono-en","tag-nature-en","tag-tasa-de-descuento-en"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>A vueltas con el carbono forestal - Luis D\u00edaz Balteiro<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/balteiro.com\/en\/137_a-vueltas-c\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"A vueltas con el carbono forestal - Luis D\u00edaz Balteiro\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"La tasa de descuento no s\u00f3lo descuenta los impactos del cambio clim\u00e1tico, sino tambi\u00e9n la incertidumbre sobre dichos impactos. 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